Explained · 9-minute video
Half the Gulf’s oil vanished. Who pays?
In February 2026 Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and Kuwait together produced 20.85 million barrels of crude oil a day; in May it was 10.99 million and in September 15.32 million (U.S. EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026; August and September are EIA estimates). This page tells the story of our video in short and names the source of every figure.
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The narrowest door
At its narrowest point the Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide, and its shipping lanes are two miles wide in each direction (U.S. EIA). The Gulf states account for 34.3% of world crude oil exports, and for 11.3% of world exports there is no other sea route (CEPII BACI, 2024, our own calculation): the entire coasts of Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar lie behind the strait.
What happened to production
Fighting around the Gulf began on 28 February 2026 (Uppsala Conflict Data Program). Iraq’s crude output fell from 4.40 million barrels a day in February to about 1.3 million in May, Kuwait’s from 2.56 million to about half a million in April, and Saudi Arabia’s from 10.50 million to about 6.5 million (EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026). World crude production dropped from 81.20 to 69.71 million barrels a day between February and May (EIA). After an agreement in June, traffic picked up for a time (EIA, press release of 7 July 2026); in September an attack briefly stopped the flow in Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline (EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook).
Why not another route?
Saudi Arabia can pump part of its oil across the country to the Red Sea, and the United Arab Emirates have a pipeline to Fujairah outside the strait. In September the UAE produced 4.44 million barrels a day of oil and other liquids, close to February’s 4.60 million; Qatar, with no other coast, produced 0.78 million after 1.85 million in February and 0.27 million in April (EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026).
The price tag
Brent crude averaged $71.1 a barrel in February 2026, $120.4 in April, $85.4 in June and $116.8 in September; natural gas in Europe rose from $11.24 to $25.42 per million British thermal units between February and September, and urea, a fertilizer made from gas, from $472 to $856.9 a tonne between February and April (World Bank, Pink Sheet, monthly averages, CC BY 4.0). US retail diesel reached a record $6.529 a gallon on 21 September (EIA).
Who pays – and who gets paid
Dependence on the Gulf differs widely: in 2024, 93% of Japan’s crude oil imports came from the Gulf states, 46% of India’s (and 73% of its natural gas imports), 40% of China’s, 9% of the United States’ and 8% of Germany’s (CEPII BACI). But oil has a world price, so buyers everywhere pay more, whatever their share. Producers outside the Gulf receive more per barrel; the United States produces about 13.9 million barrels of crude a day in 2026 (EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook).
Related: Strait of Hormuz tracker: the data, updated · Diesel just hit a record
Terms in the glossary: Crude oil · Commodity
Frequently asked questions
Which countries depend most on oil from the Gulf?
In 2024 the Gulf states supplied 93% of Japan’s crude oil imports, 46% of India’s, 40% of China’s, 9% of the United States’ and 8% of Germany’s (CEPII BACI).
How much did Gulf oil production fall?
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and Kuwait produced 20.85 million barrels of crude a day in February 2026, 10.99 million in May and an estimated 15.32 million in September (U.S. EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026).
What happened to the oil price?
Brent crude averaged $71.1 a barrel in February 2026, $120.4 in April, $85.4 in June and $116.8 in September (World Bank, Pink Sheet).
How wide is the Strait of Hormuz?
21 miles at its narrowest point, with shipping lanes two miles wide in each direction (U.S. EIA).
Sources
- U.S. Energy Information Administration: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026
- U.S. Energy Information Administration: World Oil Transit Chokepoints
- U.S. Energy Information Administration: Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices
- World Bank: Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0
- CEPII: BACI international trade database, 2024 (Etalab Open Licence 2.0)
- Uppsala Conflict Data Program: UCDP, CC BY 4.0
Percentages, sums and conversions: our own calculations from these sources. DESK is a research tool and not investment advice.
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DESK is a research tool and not investment advice. Page generated: 2026-11-09.